29 August 2005

Binaural, Track 3

It looks like Zarqawi might make a run for the border.

A top US general has said al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, will try to relocate to the Horn of Africa if Iraq is stabilised.

Major-General Douglas Lute cited Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia as likely "safe havens" for jihadists.

He said that "vast ungoverned spaces" of east Africa were likely to appeal to Zarqawi's insurgents as operations in Iraq and Afghanistan become difficult.

US troops based in Djibouti already aim to stop infiltration from the Red Sea.

"There will come a time when Zarqawi will face too much resistance in Iraq and will move on," Maj Gen Lute said.

This is pretty much the same thing that bin Laden did when he was kicked out of Sudan in the late 1990's. Afghanistan's "government", the Taleban, had little military control over the entirety of the country, and they were sympathetic to bin Laden's cause. We all know that Sudan's an absolute mess, dominated by genocidal Islamists in many areas; and for those of you who hadn't heard, there's no such thing as government in Somalia these days.

When things in Iraq calm down, and they will, I can absolutely see Zarqawi and his remaining goons jumping into the lawless power vacuum that is the Horn of Africa. There's hope for the region, but as you've come to see from the recent news, the whole thing's a massive quagmire (and legitimately, this time) for the time being.

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