04 April 2007

Progress in Iraq

A lot of buzz in the media has been given to the recent reductions some nations are making in their troop deployments to Iraq. The implication being made in the media, of course, is that our allies are somehow recognizing the error of their ways and cutting bait. However, I think that the real situation is slightly different.

It's true, several nations are withdrawing part or all of their contingents from Iraq; an accurate record can be viewed here (as usual, Global Security is there with the information whenever you need it). However, should we believe that this is the result of failed policies in Iraq? Are these dignified retreats? I don't believe they are.

Take the Brits, for example. Their primary duty has been in the southern province of Basra, a Shi'i dominated region rich in petroleum resources and home to Iraq's only port cities. Things haven't been perfect in Basra; for example, two British soldiers were captured by Iraqi militias in September of 2005, which led to a prison break by British forces (AP, BBC), which resulted in civilians attacking a British Warrior armored vehicle. However, as noted above, the situation in Basra is tense but stable, and Iraqi security forces have reached the point where less British troops are needed to reinforce and train the Iraqis. Rather than complicate the situation in Baghdad by incorporating British troops into the troop surge, the United Kingdom is withdrawing part of their contingent from Basra. In addition, Danish troops (who are reinforcing the Brits) will withdraw their contingent of nearly five hundred troops by August, but replace them with a unit of fifty who will operate observation aircraft.

On the other hand, the media has made only passing mention of several other important stories. For example, the former Soviet republic of Georgia is more than doubling its contingent in Iraq. (AP, BBC) In addition, even though their ground contingent has completed its deployment to Iraq, the Japanese Air Force will continue Kuwait-based supply and support runs to Iraq for another two years. (AP, CNN)

In addition, several of the nations that are ending or decreasing their deployments to Iraq are increasing their operations in Afghanistan. The two main examples are the United Kingdom (AP, CNN), which is increasing their ISAF contribution by about fourteen-hundred troops (the same amount they're withdrawing from Iraq), and Poland.

Though you wouldn't know it by paying attention to the mainstream news, and you certainly wouldn't know it by paying attention to American politics, things appear to be looking up in Iraq. The security crackdown in Baghdad has apparently produced something on the order of a twenty-five percent reduction in violence, and the entirety of the troop surge hasn't even arrived in theater yet.

I saw an article a few weeks ago about bloodletting among Sunnis, particularly in Anbar province. I'm not sure that this article is the one I read then, but it at least goes into some detail about the situation. It appears that Sunnis in Iraq, particularly in the Anbar province that contains such terrorist strongholds as Fallujah and Ramadi, are beginning to strike out at al Qaeda, and al Qaeda is striking back at them.

American representatives are in talks with militant leaders in Iraq in an effort to convince them to join forces against al Qaeda. The discussions are taking place in hopes of capitalizing on growing anger at al Qaeda amongst Sunnis, as al Qaeda in Iraq is increasingly targeting both Sunnis and Shiites in their effort to encourage sectarian violence. This anger includes denunciations of al Qaeda and other terrorists among Sunni clerics in Iraq. Not to be outdone, al Qaeda in Iraq is striking back at loyalist insurgent leaders.

The situation in Washington is perhaps more frustrating than the situation in Iraq; as patriots, many of us are left with no other recourse but to pray and hope that the apparent fortunate turn in Iraq can be sustained and turned into a tangible victory before American and international politics force a retreat. Progress is being made daily, and most of Iraq is relatively calm; the necessary elements we seem to lack are patience and resolve.

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