This Ain't Your Granddaddy's Cold War
Note: This is my latest submission for my parallel writing endeavour.
During the Cold War, the East versus West debacle was initially characterized by extended proxy engagements between the forces of one side against sponsored forces of whichever client state happened to be the chosen venue. This was the case in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan. As the 1970's came to a close, engagements decreased in their overall scale, lasting days or weeks. The best example of this was the U.S. invasions of Grenada and Panama. The conclusion of the Persian Gulf War in early 1991, followed several months later by the collapse of the Soviet Empire, left the world believing in the greatness of America. The Cold War was over, and the West had won; and after America's first sojourn into Iraq, it was apparent that American military prowess was an unstoppable engine in the quick and decisive spread of freedom and stability.
Seventeen years later, some question exists as to whether or not the Cold War actually ended in 1991. And contrary to the notions of a new era of peace and stability, conflicts that were previously unified into the overarching guise of the Cold War have splintered. With the overwhelming international focus on the controversial war in Iraq, many of these splintered conflicts are overlooked. Given that the United States is currently in a presidential election cycle, what follows is a brief review of the major enduring and emerging security issues around the world.
The most prominent threat to global stability is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism for years following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which exchanged a repressive Western-backed dictatorship for a repressive radical Islamist dictatorship. The Iranian regime, led by a council of religious authorities, has been linked to terrorists from Lebanon to Afghanistan. Iran is a major developer and exporter of missile and rocket technology, and the last decade has witnessed the revelation of an illicit nuclear program. Although the Iranian government repeatedly declares that their nuclear ambitions are aimed solely at generating electricity, many experts claim that Iranian conduct indicates a desire to produce a nuclear weapon. Iranian leaders and spokesmen have frequently called for the utter destruction of Israel. Iran recently tested a rocket, which the French government claims to be incapable of operating in space. The launch of this rocket has even made the Russian government, the major foreign logistical supporter of Iran's nuclear program, question Iran's goals (BBC, Guardian).
In Asia, the People's Democratic Republic of Korea has developed missile technology for decades. Like Iran, North Korea is believed to be a major exporter of ballistic missiles, most of which are derivatives of the venerable Soviet SS-1, best known as the "Scud". North Korea has also built and tested nuclear warheads, in contravention of international laws and treaties to which North Korea had been a signatory. Although some question exists as to whether or not the North Koreans would use these weapons for any purpose other than extortion, negotiations and aid agreements have thus far failed to compel the North Korean government to meet deadlines for disabling their reactor at Yongbyon. North Korea has already seen one transfer of power following the death of founder Kim Il-Sung in 1994. While his son, Kim Jong-Il, does not appear to be in immediate danger of dying, his health is frail and his death could throw the country into further chaos. North Korea will continue to be a threat to security and stability in the region into the foreseeable future.
The issue of the ballistic missile threat from Iran and North Korea has led the United States to develop a ballistic missile defense system, consisting of ground- and ship-based radar and interceptor missile systems. As a result of this development effort, which is being conducted in conjunction with Japan, South Korea, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Two of these countries, Poland and the Czech Republic, were formerly part of the Soviet sphere of influence. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the Russian government has continually protested the development of the ballistic missile shield, to the point of threatening to withdraw from various Cold War era treaties, resuming Cold War era bomber patrols, test-firing missiles off the coast of France, and developing new ballistic missile systems (1, 2, 3, 4). These activities have been dismissed as "saber rattling" by many; but while Russia is unlikely to launch a ballistic missile in anger, the very existence of these assets denote increasing tension and decreasing stability in Russo-American relations.
Perhaps more alarming than a resurgent Russia is the growing influence of the People's Republic of China. China is a growing strategic rival to the West, although this rivalry is tempered in some ways by the interconnected nature of Chinese and Western economies. China continues to expand its sphere of influence, having conducted December war games with India in December. The Chinese People's Liberation Army has worked during the last several years to engineer home-grown ballistic missile submarines and expand amphibious capabilities, both of which make the maintenance of a stalemate with Taiwan difficult. The original Cold War saw the development of dual-use space technology, and the Chinese have channeled resources into manned spaceflight in recent years; the Chinese space program has also produced an anti-satellite weapon, which continues to concern Western governments. The Chinese government has increased trade and influence in South Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Afghanistan (BBC, AFP). China has also focused on courting Africa in a sort of "checkbook diplomacy", offering money to African governments in exchange for resources without any apparent regard for the future of the African people or the human rights records of their governments. As if these developments were not enough to raise concerns about the international role of China, "Brand China" has taken a major hit in the last two years over lead-based paint in products shipped globally, as well as poisoned dog food. Further, several western governments revealed this summer that the Chinese government has made concerted efforts to hack into sensitive government and military computer systems (BBC, CNN, Fox, AFP). This threat from Chinese online espionage is so severe that both American officials and the British Security Service have deemed China the number one threat to government- and commercially-sensitive data.
These are merely a handful of the major conflicts and issues that the next American president will deal with upon taking office. This brief refresher makes no mention of the growth of malignant Islamist groups in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. It makes no mention of the increasing stress on the faltering NATO alliance, or the South Asian arms race and its juxtaposition with instability in Pakistan, or the impending death of Fidel Castro and its potential to ignite a repressed Cuban populace. It says nothing of the impact that market instability will have on security and stability in the coming decade, or the issues that environmentalists will raise that will further limit technological and strategic options, or the continued instances of chaos that rages throughout the developing world.
Unfortunately for the next American president, this is not our grandfathers' Cold War. That war was comparable to a large game of chess. The Cold War of the twentieth century is more like eight or ten simultaneous games of chess, each of them coupled with a game of risk, a debate tournament, and advanced accounting homework. As Americans go to the polls in November, their choice of America's next Commander in Chief will be crucial in the selection of an individual who possesses the experience, resolve, and versatility to engage these challenges successfully.
During the Cold War, the East versus West debacle was initially characterized by extended proxy engagements between the forces of one side against sponsored forces of whichever client state happened to be the chosen venue. This was the case in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan. As the 1970's came to a close, engagements decreased in their overall scale, lasting days or weeks. The best example of this was the U.S. invasions of Grenada and Panama. The conclusion of the Persian Gulf War in early 1991, followed several months later by the collapse of the Soviet Empire, left the world believing in the greatness of America. The Cold War was over, and the West had won; and after America's first sojourn into Iraq, it was apparent that American military prowess was an unstoppable engine in the quick and decisive spread of freedom and stability.
Seventeen years later, some question exists as to whether or not the Cold War actually ended in 1991. And contrary to the notions of a new era of peace and stability, conflicts that were previously unified into the overarching guise of the Cold War have splintered. With the overwhelming international focus on the controversial war in Iraq, many of these splintered conflicts are overlooked. Given that the United States is currently in a presidential election cycle, what follows is a brief review of the major enduring and emerging security issues around the world.
The most prominent threat to global stability is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism for years following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which exchanged a repressive Western-backed dictatorship for a repressive radical Islamist dictatorship. The Iranian regime, led by a council of religious authorities, has been linked to terrorists from Lebanon to Afghanistan. Iran is a major developer and exporter of missile and rocket technology, and the last decade has witnessed the revelation of an illicit nuclear program. Although the Iranian government repeatedly declares that their nuclear ambitions are aimed solely at generating electricity, many experts claim that Iranian conduct indicates a desire to produce a nuclear weapon. Iranian leaders and spokesmen have frequently called for the utter destruction of Israel. Iran recently tested a rocket, which the French government claims to be incapable of operating in space. The launch of this rocket has even made the Russian government, the major foreign logistical supporter of Iran's nuclear program, question Iran's goals (BBC, Guardian).
In Asia, the People's Democratic Republic of Korea has developed missile technology for decades. Like Iran, North Korea is believed to be a major exporter of ballistic missiles, most of which are derivatives of the venerable Soviet SS-1, best known as the "Scud". North Korea has also built and tested nuclear warheads, in contravention of international laws and treaties to which North Korea had been a signatory. Although some question exists as to whether or not the North Koreans would use these weapons for any purpose other than extortion, negotiations and aid agreements have thus far failed to compel the North Korean government to meet deadlines for disabling their reactor at Yongbyon. North Korea has already seen one transfer of power following the death of founder Kim Il-Sung in 1994. While his son, Kim Jong-Il, does not appear to be in immediate danger of dying, his health is frail and his death could throw the country into further chaos. North Korea will continue to be a threat to security and stability in the region into the foreseeable future.
The issue of the ballistic missile threat from Iran and North Korea has led the United States to develop a ballistic missile defense system, consisting of ground- and ship-based radar and interceptor missile systems. As a result of this development effort, which is being conducted in conjunction with Japan, South Korea, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Two of these countries, Poland and the Czech Republic, were formerly part of the Soviet sphere of influence. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the Russian government has continually protested the development of the ballistic missile shield, to the point of threatening to withdraw from various Cold War era treaties, resuming Cold War era bomber patrols, test-firing missiles off the coast of France, and developing new ballistic missile systems (1, 2, 3, 4). These activities have been dismissed as "saber rattling" by many; but while Russia is unlikely to launch a ballistic missile in anger, the very existence of these assets denote increasing tension and decreasing stability in Russo-American relations.
Perhaps more alarming than a resurgent Russia is the growing influence of the People's Republic of China. China is a growing strategic rival to the West, although this rivalry is tempered in some ways by the interconnected nature of Chinese and Western economies. China continues to expand its sphere of influence, having conducted December war games with India in December. The Chinese People's Liberation Army has worked during the last several years to engineer home-grown ballistic missile submarines and expand amphibious capabilities, both of which make the maintenance of a stalemate with Taiwan difficult. The original Cold War saw the development of dual-use space technology, and the Chinese have channeled resources into manned spaceflight in recent years; the Chinese space program has also produced an anti-satellite weapon, which continues to concern Western governments. The Chinese government has increased trade and influence in South Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Afghanistan (BBC, AFP). China has also focused on courting Africa in a sort of "checkbook diplomacy", offering money to African governments in exchange for resources without any apparent regard for the future of the African people or the human rights records of their governments. As if these developments were not enough to raise concerns about the international role of China, "Brand China" has taken a major hit in the last two years over lead-based paint in products shipped globally, as well as poisoned dog food. Further, several western governments revealed this summer that the Chinese government has made concerted efforts to hack into sensitive government and military computer systems (BBC, CNN, Fox, AFP). This threat from Chinese online espionage is so severe that both American officials and the British Security Service have deemed China the number one threat to government- and commercially-sensitive data.
These are merely a handful of the major conflicts and issues that the next American president will deal with upon taking office. This brief refresher makes no mention of the growth of malignant Islamist groups in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. It makes no mention of the increasing stress on the faltering NATO alliance, or the South Asian arms race and its juxtaposition with instability in Pakistan, or the impending death of Fidel Castro and its potential to ignite a repressed Cuban populace. It says nothing of the impact that market instability will have on security and stability in the coming decade, or the issues that environmentalists will raise that will further limit technological and strategic options, or the continued instances of chaos that rages throughout the developing world.
Unfortunately for the next American president, this is not our grandfathers' Cold War. That war was comparable to a large game of chess. The Cold War of the twentieth century is more like eight or ten simultaneous games of chess, each of them coupled with a game of risk, a debate tournament, and advanced accounting homework. As Americans go to the polls in November, their choice of America's next Commander in Chief will be crucial in the selection of an individual who possesses the experience, resolve, and versatility to engage these challenges successfully.
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