Mauritania Watch: The Dust Settles

It looks like I called it on Tuesday. Check this out.

The United States and the African Union have dropped their demands that last week's coup in Mauritania be reversed.

The US is now working with the military junta to ensure that multi-party elections are held as soon as possible, a State Department spokesman said.

President Maaouiya Ould Sid Ahmed Taya was criticised at home for working with the US in trying to fight alleged terror groups in the Sahara desert.

AU officials called the junta leader "president" after meeting him.

AU delegation leader Nigeria's Foreign Minister Oluyemi Adeniji stressed that elections should be held soon, and did not call for Mr Taya to be brought back.

"All the people we met with indicated they agreed with the change - we think it would be simpler to take the transitional process toward democracy," he said.

If you'll remember, I said:

Taya's out, and my guess is that he's going to stay out. The African Union can grouse all it wants, and the European Union and the U.S. government can all condemn the coup initially, and to be honest, that's the right thing to do; there's going to be no good that comes from condoning coups in Africa.

The right thing to do in this situation is exactly what the U.S. is doing. Initially, you condemn the coup and use your diplomats to request reinstatement, then when the dust settles on a government that's approved by the populace, seems to be genuine, and doesn't seek to end relations with the West, you appear to grudgingly accept the new leadership. The article goes on:

[...] None of Mr Taya's ministers have been retained but Ahmed Ould Sid'Ahmed, the foreign minister who signed the 1999 deal establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, has been given his old job back.

[...]

US State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said the US was working with the junta on that basis.

"The guys running the country right now are the guys we're dealing with, because they're the ones making the decisions and we are trying to get them to make the right decision," he said.

[...]

Within hours [of the coup] all the country's opposition parties backed the new rulers, with Mr Taya's own party, the Social Democratic Republican Party (PRDS), also throwing its weight behind the junta.

The statement from the State Department spokesman is exactly what's to be expected, and exactly the right response in this situation. They acknowledge that they're working with the people who are now in charge, they appear to make the best of a questionable situation, and they do what they can to encourage good decisions and policies from the new government.

For those of you who are curious, my guess is that the issue of the U.S. working with the Mauritanian government to fight "alleged terror groups", which is to say, terror groups, in the Sahara desert probably has something to do with the incident discussed here.

In February 2003, 32 Western Europeans were taken hostage by terrorists in the Sahara desert areas of southeastern Algeria, between the cities of Ouargla and Tamanrasset. Fourteen of the hostages were transported by the terrorists into northern Mali. The Department of State continues to caution U.S. citizens to avoid traveling in this area.

Ever since the French were ousted back in the fifties and sixties, Algeria's been a rough locale. With terrorist groups operating there and kidnapping European tourists, it's not surprising that the U.S. government lobbied for help from the Mauritanians, and President Taya relented, probably to stay in good graces with the West.

At any rate, a CNN article gives more information.

NOUAKCHOTT, Mauritania (AP) -- African Union envoys who met Mauritania's new military strongman said Wednesday they were reassured by the country's junta leaders, and urged them to follow a plan to hold democratic elections in less than two years.

Pointedly, they said nothing about restoring to power exiled President Maaoya Sid'Ahmed Ould Taya, who was overthrown in a bloodless coup August 3.

"We were reassured because there is a consensus on the reasons, even the necessity, for change," said Nigerian Foreign Minister Oluyemi Adeniji, who led the AU delegation.

Taya, who had ruled since a 1984 coup, was widely unpopular and many Mauritanians welcomed his ouster. On Tuesday, he left Niger for the West African nation of Gambia, according to members of his entourage.

"The impression that we've had since our arrival is that there is peace everywhere," Adeniji told reporters. "All the people we met with indicated they agreed with the change. And we think it would be simpler to take the transitional process toward democracy."

There's more information later on in the article.

Taya was strongly criticized by many Mauritanians for allying his overwhelmingly Muslim nation with the United States in the war on terror and opening full diplomatic relations with Israel six years ago, becoming one of only three Arab League nations to do so.

Taya cracked down ruthlessly on his opponents, jailing scores after surviving three alleged coup attempts, one of which sparked several days of fighting in the capital in 2003.

Taya branded his opponents "terrorists" and his harsh crackdown is believed to have contributed to bringing on the coup. But a power struggle over recently discovered offshore oil reserves may also have played a role. The desert nation is expected to begin pumping crude for the first time in early 2006.

A legitimate, transparent democracy with oil resources that isn't going to eliminate its ties with the west or Israel? Sounds good to me. More on this story as it develops; I'm going to treat this story like Aaron treated the French massacre in Cote D'Ivoire.