Satellite Mapped News Update
What the hell? Both Bernie Mac and Chef died this weekend? Unbelievable.
Top Five Things the Fly is Sick of Hearing About:
5) international inaction about Darfur
4) climate change/global warming/carbon footprints
3) Barack Obama
2) Miley Cyrus
1) the Olympics
Everyone bitches about Darfur, but nobody's willing to do anything about it - except for China, which is facilitating the genocide. I'm sick of "climate change" or "global warming" or whatever it's called this week, and I'm sick of the media trying to make me feel like a horrible person on account of my "carbon footprint" - it's called freedom/capitalism, kids, and it's the only way to actually solve the issue. I'm colossally sick of hearing about Barack Obama, and while I can acknowledge that he's important because he's the presumptive Democrat candidate for president, he's getting too much coverage. I'm fed up with hearing about Miley Cyrus - and, like the recent South Park episode about Britney Spears, I swear that tabloid media are going to push this poor girl into ruining her life. Mostly, though, I'm tired of hearing about the Olympics.
Remember a few months ago, when I couldn't find a collander that was in plain sight? I had another such episode last night. Remember a month or two ago, when I ordered a copy of Shadow War because mine was back in [Hometown]? Well, guess what I just stumbled across yesterday? That's right, I now have two copies of Shadow War after having stumbled across the second in an unexplored box of books on Thursday. Wonderful.
Anyway, here are a few stories I've been following lately.
* * *
Our first story takes us to Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, where Moqtada al Sadr has launched an unarmed/"cultural"/civic wing of his organization. (Fox, BBC, BBC, Wired) He's also pledged to maintain the Jaish al Mahdi Militia's ceasefire in exchange for a coalition withdrawal timetable. The JAM ceasefire has been one of the big reasons for the massive decline in violence in Iraq, coupled with the Awakening Movement that started in Anbar in 2007. They've been an integral element of the reduction in violence in Iraq over the past year. These developments have paralleled the growing competency of the Iraqi security forces, and the increasing understanding of American and coalition troops with respect to Iraqi culture and politics. What al Sadr's trying to do isn't unheard of, as insurgent/militant/terrorist groups often use both armed and unarmed wings. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Taliban, the Provisional IRA, the Green Party, all of them have both militant and political wings. The issue for Iraq is going to be the same issue that the Lebanese have to deal with: how to disarm the militant wings. So far, Iraq has had the advantage of American troops fighting alongside Iraqi security forces against both al Qaeda and the JAM, but they won't always have that advantage.
Between battling it out with the Americans in Sadr City and the Brits in Basra, and the stunning success of both the surge itself and Prime Minister al Maliki's confrontation of the JAM on their own turf, the JAM has been severely weakened. As a result, al Sadr has had to make a decision: invest in what's currently a losing military battle, or bide time until the eventual coalition withdrawal. The tough strategy, but the right one, is to force a complete disarmament of the JAM. For the sake of Iraqi unity and stability, private militias (to include the "Sons of Iraq" in other provinces) will need to be somehow integrated into the official Iraqi security infrastructure. Given that al Sadr is essentially Iran's proxy in Iraq (when he bothers to leave Iran), having an Iranian proxy militia (see: Hezbollah) is asking for trouble in the future.
The way that Hezbollah secured support in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza, was by providing social services and a political alternative to the government in power. As a result, they've been able to undercut the government, to the point of Hamas' victory in "Palestinian" elections in 2006 - and we all know how that turned out. This development is worth watching.
* * *
Next up, we go to Nouakchott for a story that's been of great interest to me: a surprise coup. As I've mentioned previously, I've blogged extensively about Mauritania since the 2005 coup that led to the country's first democratically elected president in history. Until 2007, I had a good friend who was in the Peace Corps in Mauritania, hence the growth of my interest. Aside from being a nominally pro-Western country that's helped us with Operation Enduring Freedom - Trans-Sahara, Mauritania is one of the world's newest oil producers, and one of only a handful of Arab countries with full diplomatic ties to Israel. Like Georgia, Mauritania is a strategically important country that few people are familiar with.
According to my former Peace Corps friend, the guy they elected president, Sidi Ould Sheikh Abdallahi, was no prize; still, that doesn't dismiss a coup. Apparently, Abdallahi has been under pressure lately due to escalating food prices. This led to a dismissal of the Mauritanian army's top generals, who then deposed and detained President Abdallahi. Here are some of the developments thus far.
Troops stage coup in Mauritania (BBC, Guardian, AP, Times)
Coup in Mauritania causes Israel to delay new envoy (Jerusalem Post)
Mauritania Coup Chief Leads March in Capital, Promises Free Elections 'Soon' (BBC, AP)
Mauritanian coup condemned [by the US, UN, and EU] (BBC)
Fear for ousted Mauritanian leader (BBC)
US halt aid over Mauritanian coup (BBC)
I'll continue to update this story as it develops. Mauritania may seem like a Saharan backwater, and it is, but in light of the rise of al Qaeda in the Sahara, Mauritania is an important element in America's national security strategy. It's worth paying attention to.
* * *
Next, we're off to Tbilisi. The big story for both last week and this week, other than former Senator John Edwards proving once and for all that he's a worthless asshole, is the Russian incursion into Georgia. Most people will have absolutely no clue what the background is, but Georgia/South Ossetia is one of the areas I try to keep close tabs on (Mauritania and Balochistan being two of the others), so here's the background.
Georgia is a former Soviet republic that gained its independence with the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Since then, the Georgians have been pro-Western, and somewhat confrontational with their Russian neighbors. Like the Ukraine, Georgia aspires to NATO membership - and Russia is against it, to the point of threatening both countries. (Jamestown, AP, Spiegel) The Georgians have not only deployed troops to Iraq, but sent more as part of a sort of "Georgian surge" (AP, BBC) - this is in direct contrast to countries such as Italy, Spain, Australia, and Japan, who have all discontinued their operational involvement in Iraq. United States Marines recently concluded a training evolution with Georgian troops outside Tbilisi.
Within the recognized borders of Georgia itself are two breakaway regions that have enjoyed relative autonomy for years: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Remember the Beslan school massacre in 2004? That attack by Chechen terrorists occurred in North Ossetia, which remains part of Russia. (Interestingly enough, the North Ossetians attacked the Russian military during the December 1994 invasion of Chechnya.) These two regions have engaged in low-level separatist operations for more than a decade, involving occasional skirmishes and regular political actions against the Georgian government. When Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 1992, the declaration resulted in a conflict that ended with a Georgian withdrawal and ethnic cleansing of Georgians, Greeks, Armenians, and Russians by Abkhaz militants. In November of 2006, South Ossetia held a formal referendum on declaring its independence in which nearly all voters favored such a move. (Global Security, BBC, AP) The polls were formally dismissed, or ignored outright, by the international community - save for Russia.
Russian involvement in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been extensive. Whether this is out of legitimate concern for the Ossetians, or out of a desire to set an example for the West while punishing the obstinance of a former subject, is subject to interpretation. Russia has garrisoned so-called peacekeepers in both regions for years, and the Russians have been known to make regular aerial incursions into Georgian airspace. The Georgian military flies regular surveillance missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In April, a Russian MiG 29 aircraft was caught on video over Abkhazia, shooting down a Georgian surveillance drone. (BBC) As a result, analysts spoke of the possibility of war between Russia and Georgia over Abkhazia. (Guardian, UPI) The diplomatic conflict continued through July. Last week, the Israeli government discontinued drone sales to Georgia in a bid to limit Russian support for Iran's nuclear program.
(Jerusalem Post, Wired)
Earlier this week, fighting broke out between the Georgian military and South Ossetia's rebel forces. Despite an initial ceasefire agreement, fighting flared back up, eventually resulting in Georgian forces shooting down two Russian aircraft. (Guardian, Times). The Russians military responded by sending tanks into South Ossetia and bombing Georgian air bases. The Russian incursion has allegedly escalated to air attacks on Russian cities outside South Ossetia. How this incident will end, and what its impact will be, is anyone's guess.
While this is a conflict between Russia and Georgia, the international overtones are obvious. Despite publicity stunts aimed at making the Russian military appear modern and lethal, the majority of Russia's equipment is slowly deteriorating, and its ranks are filled with inexperienced conscripts. As the Russian leadership consolidates its political power, most of the countries formerly within its orbit have either joined, or aspire to join, NATO. Russia's protests at Kosovo's declaration of independence were ignored, and the Russian opposition to America's ballistic missile defense system has been politely brushed aside - not to mention the diplomatic and economic capital the Russians have expended on supporting Iran's nuclear program. While the current conflict is specifically about South Ossetia, the Kremlin likely feels no pain over the diplomatic fallout of punishing Georgia for its perceived insolence.
The Cold War may be over, but Russia remains a significant monkey on the collective back of the West - as the West's Georgian allies are learning. Oddly enough, this game is almost completely parallel with the plot of Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon, a PC/X-Box game released in - get this - 2001. Right down to the conflict beginning in South Ossetia. Crazy.
* * *
Alright, folks. As always, there's more to come. Check back Tuesday for some lighter updates, and have a great Monday.
5) international inaction about Darfur
4) climate change/global warming/carbon footprints
3) Barack Obama
2) Miley Cyrus
1) the Olympics
Everyone bitches about Darfur, but nobody's willing to do anything about it - except for China, which is facilitating the genocide. I'm sick of "climate change" or "global warming" or whatever it's called this week, and I'm sick of the media trying to make me feel like a horrible person on account of my "carbon footprint" - it's called freedom/capitalism, kids, and it's the only way to actually solve the issue. I'm colossally sick of hearing about Barack Obama, and while I can acknowledge that he's important because he's the presumptive Democrat candidate for president, he's getting too much coverage. I'm fed up with hearing about Miley Cyrus - and, like the recent South Park episode about Britney Spears, I swear that tabloid media are going to push this poor girl into ruining her life. Mostly, though, I'm tired of hearing about the Olympics.
Remember a few months ago, when I couldn't find a collander that was in plain sight? I had another such episode last night. Remember a month or two ago, when I ordered a copy of Shadow War because mine was back in [Hometown]? Well, guess what I just stumbled across yesterday? That's right, I now have two copies of Shadow War after having stumbled across the second in an unexplored box of books on Thursday. Wonderful.
Anyway, here are a few stories I've been following lately.
Our first story takes us to Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, where Moqtada al Sadr has launched an unarmed/"cultural"/civic wing of his organization. (Fox, BBC, BBC, Wired) He's also pledged to maintain the Jaish al Mahdi Militia's ceasefire in exchange for a coalition withdrawal timetable. The JAM ceasefire has been one of the big reasons for the massive decline in violence in Iraq, coupled with the Awakening Movement that started in Anbar in 2007. They've been an integral element of the reduction in violence in Iraq over the past year. These developments have paralleled the growing competency of the Iraqi security forces, and the increasing understanding of American and coalition troops with respect to Iraqi culture and politics. What al Sadr's trying to do isn't unheard of, as insurgent/militant/terrorist groups often use both armed and unarmed wings. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Taliban, the Provisional IRA, the Green Party, all of them have both militant and political wings. The issue for Iraq is going to be the same issue that the Lebanese have to deal with: how to disarm the militant wings. So far, Iraq has had the advantage of American troops fighting alongside Iraqi security forces against both al Qaeda and the JAM, but they won't always have that advantage.
Between battling it out with the Americans in Sadr City and the Brits in Basra, and the stunning success of both the surge itself and Prime Minister al Maliki's confrontation of the JAM on their own turf, the JAM has been severely weakened. As a result, al Sadr has had to make a decision: invest in what's currently a losing military battle, or bide time until the eventual coalition withdrawal. The tough strategy, but the right one, is to force a complete disarmament of the JAM. For the sake of Iraqi unity and stability, private militias (to include the "Sons of Iraq" in other provinces) will need to be somehow integrated into the official Iraqi security infrastructure. Given that al Sadr is essentially Iran's proxy in Iraq (when he bothers to leave Iran), having an Iranian proxy militia (see: Hezbollah) is asking for trouble in the future.
The way that Hezbollah secured support in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza, was by providing social services and a political alternative to the government in power. As a result, they've been able to undercut the government, to the point of Hamas' victory in "Palestinian" elections in 2006 - and we all know how that turned out. This development is worth watching.
Next up, we go to Nouakchott for a story that's been of great interest to me: a surprise coup. As I've mentioned previously, I've blogged extensively about Mauritania since the 2005 coup that led to the country's first democratically elected president in history. Until 2007, I had a good friend who was in the Peace Corps in Mauritania, hence the growth of my interest. Aside from being a nominally pro-Western country that's helped us with Operation Enduring Freedom - Trans-Sahara, Mauritania is one of the world's newest oil producers, and one of only a handful of Arab countries with full diplomatic ties to Israel. Like Georgia, Mauritania is a strategically important country that few people are familiar with.
According to my former Peace Corps friend, the guy they elected president, Sidi Ould Sheikh Abdallahi, was no prize; still, that doesn't dismiss a coup. Apparently, Abdallahi has been under pressure lately due to escalating food prices. This led to a dismissal of the Mauritanian army's top generals, who then deposed and detained President Abdallahi. Here are some of the developments thus far.
I'll continue to update this story as it develops. Mauritania may seem like a Saharan backwater, and it is, but in light of the rise of al Qaeda in the Sahara, Mauritania is an important element in America's national security strategy. It's worth paying attention to.
Next, we're off to Tbilisi. The big story for both last week and this week, other than former Senator John Edwards proving once and for all that he's a worthless asshole, is the Russian incursion into Georgia. Most people will have absolutely no clue what the background is, but Georgia/South Ossetia is one of the areas I try to keep close tabs on (Mauritania and Balochistan being two of the others), so here's the background.
Georgia is a former Soviet republic that gained its independence with the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Since then, the Georgians have been pro-Western, and somewhat confrontational with their Russian neighbors. Like the Ukraine, Georgia aspires to NATO membership - and Russia is against it, to the point of threatening both countries. (Jamestown, AP, Spiegel) The Georgians have not only deployed troops to Iraq, but sent more as part of a sort of "Georgian surge" (AP, BBC) - this is in direct contrast to countries such as Italy, Spain, Australia, and Japan, who have all discontinued their operational involvement in Iraq. United States Marines recently concluded a training evolution with Georgian troops outside Tbilisi.
Within the recognized borders of Georgia itself are two breakaway regions that have enjoyed relative autonomy for years: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Remember the Beslan school massacre in 2004? That attack by Chechen terrorists occurred in North Ossetia, which remains part of Russia. (Interestingly enough, the North Ossetians attacked the Russian military during the December 1994 invasion of Chechnya.) These two regions have engaged in low-level separatist operations for more than a decade, involving occasional skirmishes and regular political actions against the Georgian government. When Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 1992, the declaration resulted in a conflict that ended with a Georgian withdrawal and ethnic cleansing of Georgians, Greeks, Armenians, and Russians by Abkhaz militants. In November of 2006, South Ossetia held a formal referendum on declaring its independence in which nearly all voters favored such a move. (Global Security, BBC, AP) The polls were formally dismissed, or ignored outright, by the international community - save for Russia.
Russian involvement in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been extensive. Whether this is out of legitimate concern for the Ossetians, or out of a desire to set an example for the West while punishing the obstinance of a former subject, is subject to interpretation. Russia has garrisoned so-called peacekeepers in both regions for years, and the Russians have been known to make regular aerial incursions into Georgian airspace. The Georgian military flies regular surveillance missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In April, a Russian MiG 29 aircraft was caught on video over Abkhazia, shooting down a Georgian surveillance drone. (BBC) As a result, analysts spoke of the possibility of war between Russia and Georgia over Abkhazia. (Guardian, UPI) The diplomatic conflict continued through July. Last week, the Israeli government discontinued drone sales to Georgia in a bid to limit Russian support for Iran's nuclear program.
(Jerusalem Post, Wired)
Earlier this week, fighting broke out between the Georgian military and South Ossetia's rebel forces. Despite an initial ceasefire agreement, fighting flared back up, eventually resulting in Georgian forces shooting down two Russian aircraft. (Guardian, Times). The Russians military responded by sending tanks into South Ossetia and bombing Georgian air bases. The Russian incursion has allegedly escalated to air attacks on Russian cities outside South Ossetia. How this incident will end, and what its impact will be, is anyone's guess.
While this is a conflict between Russia and Georgia, the international overtones are obvious. Despite publicity stunts aimed at making the Russian military appear modern and lethal, the majority of Russia's equipment is slowly deteriorating, and its ranks are filled with inexperienced conscripts. As the Russian leadership consolidates its political power, most of the countries formerly within its orbit have either joined, or aspire to join, NATO. Russia's protests at Kosovo's declaration of independence were ignored, and the Russian opposition to America's ballistic missile defense system has been politely brushed aside - not to mention the diplomatic and economic capital the Russians have expended on supporting Iran's nuclear program. While the current conflict is specifically about South Ossetia, the Kremlin likely feels no pain over the diplomatic fallout of punishing Georgia for its perceived insolence.
The Cold War may be over, but Russia remains a significant monkey on the collective back of the West - as the West's Georgian allies are learning. Oddly enough, this game is almost completely parallel with the plot of Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon, a PC/X-Box game released in - get this - 2001. Right down to the conflict beginning in South Ossetia. Crazy.
Alright, folks. As always, there's more to come. Check back Tuesday for some lighter updates, and have a great Monday.
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