08 July 2005

Friendly Neighbors

I'm not sure what to think of this story.

Former enemies Iran and Iraq say they will launch broad military co-operation including training Iraqi armed forces.

"It's a new chapter in our relations with Iraq," said Iranian Defence Minister Admiral Ali Shamkhani.

He was speaking at a joint news conference in Tehran with his Iraqi counterpart Saadoun al-Dulaimi.

Relations between the neighbours - who fought a bitter war from 1980 to 1988 - have improved greatly since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

This is the first visit to Iran by an Iraqi military delegation since the war, in which a million people died, started.

I personally think this is a very bittersweet development. It's important that the new Iraqi government establish positive relations with its neighbors; on the other hand, the new Iraqi government should be very careful with respect to its relations with terrorist regimes like Iran and Syria.

This is a hasty allegory, but I think that it fits. Iraq is like the guy in a rough neighborhood who becomes the subject of an intervention by friends from out of town. The kid, Iraq, is forced to stop its self destructive behavior (drugs, terrorism, thievery, genocide, you get the idea). One of the major reasons for our liberation of Iraq was to establish a pluralistic, moderate democracy in the Arab World. This way, Iraq serves as an example to all of the other neighborhood kids (Iran, Syria, "Palestine") that there's a better way, and that they can improve their own lots in life. The move also reinforces and encourages the other "kids" in the neighborhood, Egypt, Lebanon, Kuwait, Jordan, who are somewhere in the middle: not bona fide democracies, but nations with strong Western alliances that are basically looking for an excuse to drag their counties up out of the sand.

The danger, of course, is that Iraq runs the risk of becoming "conflicted" and essentially sinking back into the sand as a result of peer pressure from nations like Iran and Syria. Iraq needs to serve as an example to these failing regimes, while at the same time resisting their self-destructive influence and calling them out when they fail to stop (or even encourage) terrorists flowing past their borders, et cetera.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Given that I give the current Iranian regime five years or less before it's replaced, in one way or another, it will be a good precedent for the Iraqi government to be on good terms with the Iranian people. When all hell breaks loose in Iran, the Iraqi people and government can establish even stronger relations by being the strong neighbor, an example of a stable Middle Eastern democracy and a source of various forms of aid and political support.

The irony, of course, is that those who condemn the Iraq War, and wish it to fail, have absolutely no concept of the depth of the situation. Iraq is a crucial component in the establishment of a peaceful, modern Middle East; the Iraqi people are heroes now, and they will become heroes in completely different ways during the course of the next century. Just watch.

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