Finally Friday
Hey folks. This will be brief. After a very long week, it's finally Friday, but there's still more to do. I work today, I'll spend a large part of the weekend writing my next article, and possibly another article after that, and I have lunch with the rector at the church I've been attending (that's tomorrow). Lots to do, lots to do.
For the record, I'm wearing my kilt to work today. I rule.
* * *
The big news, and I'm guessing that most of you have seen it, is that former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated in Rawalpindi. If you pay attention to the news, you know that it's the biggest story; if you put stock in the news, you probably think that the world is going to come to an end. News of the event sent stocks into a dive and caused a rise in oil prices.
I'm tempted to believe that despite the media furor over this event, the likelihood of this having a lasting effect is questionable. Bhutto had been dismissed twice for corruption, she was seen by many as a political opportunist, and I've heard reports that she only enjoyed the support of thirty to forty percent of the Pakistani people. It's tough to say what the average Pakistani on the ground thinks, but Bhutto had been notably dismissive of threats to her safety. None of this adds up to solid political clout, although there's no doubt that she was a substantial political player. The question, then, is what kind of actual support or potential she had upon her return to Pakistan several months ago; and more importantly now, what kind of impact this assassination will have on the Pakistani elections scheduled for the end of next week.
The other factor in this is that pretty much nobody is saying that President Musharraf did this. Bhutto's staff has blamed President Musharraf for failing to provide sufficient security for her rallies, and Bhutto herself had gone on record as saying that she would blame Musharraf personally if any harm came to her. For those who don't speak politicalese, here's the translation: she knew people were trying to kill her, she provided herself as a target, criticized the amount of security that was provided to her, and pre-blamed President Musharraf. Politics, folks, not legitimate statements in my opinion. At any rate, unless this can be pinned on Musharraf, I don't see it causing a severe disruption in Pakistan (and by extension, Afghanistan, Iran, Balochistan, and Waziristan) since it really has everything to do with the continued threat of the militants in Waziristan and the Northwest Frontier Province. And why am I compelled to believe that Musharraf didn't have anything to do with this? I believe that Musharraf had more to gain from defeating Bhutto in an election (legitimate or not) than he did by having her killed.
To conclude, I think that this could have serious repercussions, but I'm compelled to take a "wait and see" attitude, rather than running around like Chicken Little. Short term? Probably turmoil. Long term? Pakistan will probably continue to be the chaotic political jungle that it's been since it was founded in 1947.
* * *
And now, just because it's what I seem to do lately, your entertaining link of the day: A Tribute to Real Men.
Have a great weekend, folks!
For the record, I'm wearing my kilt to work today. I rule.
The big news, and I'm guessing that most of you have seen it, is that former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated in Rawalpindi. If you pay attention to the news, you know that it's the biggest story; if you put stock in the news, you probably think that the world is going to come to an end. News of the event sent stocks into a dive and caused a rise in oil prices.
I'm tempted to believe that despite the media furor over this event, the likelihood of this having a lasting effect is questionable. Bhutto had been dismissed twice for corruption, she was seen by many as a political opportunist, and I've heard reports that she only enjoyed the support of thirty to forty percent of the Pakistani people. It's tough to say what the average Pakistani on the ground thinks, but Bhutto had been notably dismissive of threats to her safety. None of this adds up to solid political clout, although there's no doubt that she was a substantial political player. The question, then, is what kind of actual support or potential she had upon her return to Pakistan several months ago; and more importantly now, what kind of impact this assassination will have on the Pakistani elections scheduled for the end of next week.
The other factor in this is that pretty much nobody is saying that President Musharraf did this. Bhutto's staff has blamed President Musharraf for failing to provide sufficient security for her rallies, and Bhutto herself had gone on record as saying that she would blame Musharraf personally if any harm came to her. For those who don't speak politicalese, here's the translation: she knew people were trying to kill her, she provided herself as a target, criticized the amount of security that was provided to her, and pre-blamed President Musharraf. Politics, folks, not legitimate statements in my opinion. At any rate, unless this can be pinned on Musharraf, I don't see it causing a severe disruption in Pakistan (and by extension, Afghanistan, Iran, Balochistan, and Waziristan) since it really has everything to do with the continued threat of the militants in Waziristan and the Northwest Frontier Province. And why am I compelled to believe that Musharraf didn't have anything to do with this? I believe that Musharraf had more to gain from defeating Bhutto in an election (legitimate or not) than he did by having her killed.
To conclude, I think that this could have serious repercussions, but I'm compelled to take a "wait and see" attitude, rather than running around like Chicken Little. Short term? Probably turmoil. Long term? Pakistan will probably continue to be the chaotic political jungle that it's been since it was founded in 1947.
And now, just because it's what I seem to do lately, your entertaining link of the day: A Tribute to Real Men.
Have a great weekend, folks!
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home