A few months ago, chickenhawk asked me for my views and analysis of the current situation with North Korea. I'll admit up front that my studies have focused primarily on the Middle East and South Asia. That having been said, what President Bush has described as the "Axis of Evil" turns out to be pretty much that: a collective of interconnected rogue nations and organizations, and North Korea is a crucial element.
North Korea has been a strategic issue for the Western world since the end of World War II (when half of Korea became communist and the other half became capitalist). In the early 1950's, North Korea invaded South Korea, only to be repulsed in a three year police action by a large coalition led by the United States.
The United States posts a large contingent in South Korea, particularly along the demilitarized zone on the thirty-eighth parallel. Although these forces are ostensibly ready to repulse a North Korean attack, their primary role is a political one: while North Korea might attack only the South Koreans, they are far less likely to restart a conventional shooting war with the United States. A couple of minor incidents (most notably the
USS Pueblo incident) have occurred between the United States and North Korea in the last fifty years, and there are periodic incidents between North and South Korean forces, but the Korean War has been an official stalemate since 1953.
An abbreviated review of North Korean missile and nuclear development follows, but
here is an extensive report on the history of the DPRK's missile development, and
here is an extended review of DPRK nuclear development.
North Korea has been slowly developing nuclear technology since the 1960's, when it initiated its nuclear program using Soviet assistance. It kick-started new and extensive research and development on ballistic missiles during the late 1990's, basing its designs on Soviet SCUD missiles. In 1994, then-President Clinton sent former-President Jimmy Carter to secure a cessation of nuclear development from North Korea; a heavily biased (but factually accurate) article about the failure of Carter's mission can be read
here, and another
here. In August of 1998, North Korea tested the
Taepodong-1 missile, prompting the international community to clamp down. Kim Jong Il agreed to a moratorium on long-range ballistic missile testing, promising that he would stop testing Taepodong-1 missiles. In July of 2006 year, Kim Jong Il made good on this promise - by test firing a
Taepodong-2 missile instead. North Korea has carried out
several nuclear tests (and several other possible nuclear tests) over the last couple of years.
I'm under the impression, from my research and what I've seen in the media, that the current missile and nuclear capabilities of the DPRK are still limited. Intermediate-range ballistic missiles like the
Nodong series, which are mostly variants of existing, proven SCUD designs seem to be reliable; on the other hand, the North Korean capacity for highly accurate targeting is questionable, as are the reliability and accuracy of the Taepodong series. As for North Korea's actual nuclear warheads, there are
indications that they're either somewhat fragile, or possibly just unreliable. Reliable North Korean missile capability would allow DPRK strikes on South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, or American positions in either of the first two. However, the likelihood of North Korea being able to reliably launch a nuclear first strike on any of the aforementioned targets, let alone the continental United States, is questionable.
Thus, North Korea is an emerging threat as a nuclear power, and an existing threat using conventional weapons. However, North Korea has everything to gain by
testing these systems in a very public manner, and almost nothing to gain by
using them against its perceived enemies. Although North Korea's national policy is one of extreme militarization, their conventional military would get trounced by the coalition that would almost certainly retaliate after any unprovoked North Korean attack. The bottom line is that these continued tests by the DPRK are international political posturing.
So, why is North Korea doing this? As the world's only remaining Stalinist nation, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is colossally poor. According to a July article in the Wall Street Journal, North Korea's entire national economic policy is based on using its nuclear program to extort money from the international community. Kim Jong Il believes that his best bet at making money, ostensibly for his country, is by funneling all of his resources into developing nuclear weapons and delivery devices, and then blackmailing the United States, South Korea, Japan, and anyone else who wants to join in into giving him economic aid. Now, given that this is the situation, the question becomes: If he's probably not a threat, then why bother holding him accountable at all?
The answer, my friends, can be expressed in one word (which isn't really my style, but here goes): proliferation.
North Korea has a long history of weapons proliferation. During the 1980's, the DPRK supplied variant SCUD-B missiles to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, and reportedly continues to supply them with various SCUD variants to this day. In the 1990's, North Korea supplied Pakistan with ballistic missiles in exchange for
assistance in the development of its nuclear program by the A.Q. Khan network; they also supplied missiles to the
Libyans. The record on North Korea's illegal arms proliferation is clear following the interdiction of the A.Q. Khan network and the full disclosure of the Libyans. Aside from missile technology and equipment, North Korean nuclear material
made it to Libya, although some question exists as to
whether North Korea knew about it or not.
In short, North Korea's entire illicit weapons program is seen by Kim Jong-Il and his subordinates as a cash cow. They have been using both their missile production capacity and their nascent nuclear program to acquire much-needed funds for years. If they can use it as a scare tactic to extort money from the West, they will. If that fails, they can continue and expand their sales of nuclear technology and ballistic missiles to whoever is willing to pay them.
So, what's the solution? This is where speculation gets difficult. One thing is clear: allowing the DPRK to continue on its present course is seen as unacceptable by pretty much everyone. Even China and Russia, who continually impede Western efforts to hold rogue states accountable, have participated in six-party talks in an effort to get the North Koreans to back down and suspend nuclear development. The international community has imposed increasingly harsh sanctions on North Korea, to the point that it has become one of the most isolated countries in the world. There is some advantage to this, as it makes it more difficult for the DPRK to export weapons; however, this condition can't be counted upon to stop proliferation of illicit arms.
As far as military options go, none of them are good. A full-on invasion isn't promising, not only because the world's troops are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, but because North Korea is
heavily militarized, along the same lines as Japan by the end of World War II. North Korean society is built on a massive personality cult with Kim Jong-Il and his late father at the center. Whether out of adoration or fear, an invading and occupying coalition would have its hands full; not to mention that any invasion would be immediately answered by artillery and possibly nuclear barrages against South Korea (and possibly Japan) by North Korea.
Strategic bombing is another option. Although it's possible that other facilities exist, the primary North Korean nuclear facility is at
Yongbyon. While human intelligence is difficult to obtain, my guess is that satellite imagery gives fairly strong indicators of where North Korea's secondary nuclear facilities are. Also, covert SCUD launcher recon and elimination
is nothing new.
As far as I'm concerned, the way President Bush and his peers are proceeding is good. An extremely aggressive stance could lead the already-paranoid North Korean leadership to do something prematurely stupid. However, as the French, British, and German diplomatic coalition that tried to talk down Iran proves, diplomacy without a credible and legitimate threat of force to back it up is worthless, as diplomacy is something that two parties do as an alternative to the use of force. No matter how crazy Kim Jong-Il may be, any chance of extinguishing his nuclear program once and for all requires him to understand that military, political, and/or economic force can and will be brought to bear on North Korea. The bottom line is that this particular situation is slightly more stable, but simultaneously more delicate, than situations elsewhere in the world.
Ironically, part of Kim Jong-Il's paranoia comes from believing that he has more to gain by standing off against the rest of the world than by complying. Why is this ironic? Because there's a very clear and present example that unconditional compliance results in economic and political benefits, as
John Bolton pointed out in a 2004 speech in South Korea. Since Libya abandoned its WMD programs in 2003, Western nations have
opened embassies, invested in Libya's
petroleum infrastructure, and
other industries. For the time being, though, it's a big, ugly, ridiculous standoff.
Having discussed this serious matter (and having worked on it for a solid week), here's some
related chicanery.
Thus saith the Fly.
